New findings shorten the road to cryptographically relevant quantum computers – Physics World


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New findings shorten the road to cryptographically relevant quantum computers – Physics World

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Document Ref
AX-2026-INTEL-188-OMEGA
Issuance Date
2026-05-26
Subject
QUANTUM COMPUTING — CRYPTOGRAPHY — HARDWARE INNOVATION

Confidence Gauge
90%

The request was rejected because it was considered high risk

MetricOratomic (Neutral-Atom)Google Quantum AI (Superconducting)
Physical Qubits for ECC-25610,000 (space-efficient) / 26,000 (time-efficient)~500,000
Time to Crack ECC-256~3 years (space-efficient) / 10 days (time-efficient)18 minutes (potentially 9 min with precomputation)
Time to Crack RSA-2048120 years (10K qubits) / 97 days (100K qubits)Not separately reported
Error-Correction MethodqLDPC codes (high encoding rate of ~1:2–1:10)Surface code (encoding rate of ~1:100–1:1000)
Current Hardware & Status6,100 qubits demonstrated (not yet computational); preprint, not yet peer-reviewed105-qubit Willow processor; white paper with zero-knowledge proof disclosure

Quantum Threat Nearer Than Expected

The request was rejected because it was considered high risk

The request was rejected because it was considered high risk

Encryption systems at risk

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“Migrating to PQC is a massive undertaking that won’t happen overnight. Starting migration today is a necessary risk management strategy.”

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The request was rejected because it was considered high risk

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