**The Next Military High Ground: Why the U.S. Must Counter China’s Lunar Ambitions**
3 min read
Moreover, the moon is now a strategic location in a new space race. However, some experts believe China’s plans there could be for military advantage. Consequently, a recent report argues the United States must prepare for a military presence on the moon.
Specifically, this is to deter potential conflicts and protect access to lunar resources. In particular, the report suggests the Space Force should lead this effort. Importantly, it recommends starting small with practical training to build future capabilities.
| Dimension | United States (Mitchell Institute Proposal) | China (Reported Strategy) |
|---|---|---|
| Stated Goal | Achieve strategic positional advantage in cislunar space through military human spaceflight to deter adversary land-grabs and secure long-duration space dominance. | Publicly claims peaceful lunar research and international collaboration; allegedly aims to occupy the moon as an extension of territorial ambitions via PLA-led missions. |
| Legal Framework | Would effectively overturn nearly 70 years of civil-military separation policy and challenge the 1967 Outer Space Treaty’s prohibition on military occupation of celestial bodies. | Publicly endorses the Outer Space Treaty and peaceful use of space, but is accused of planning PLA-operated bases that would violate its provisions. |
| Military Role | Proposes the U.S. Space Force establish a dedicated military human spaceflight program, leveraging its space-minded warfighter training and commercial LEO stations as proving grounds. | Lunar research program is described as military-led, with the People’s Liberation Army directing human spaceflight and infrastructure development. |
| Resource & Territory Outlook | Views lunar resources and territory as vital to national security and a critical first step toward future space habitation and economic development. | Perceived as seeking exclusive access to lunar resources and strategic territory to gain leverage and hold other nations “hostage” to its terms. |
| Risk Assessment | Warns of an existential, open-ended space race with no finish line; advocates proactive, pragmatic investment now to avoid costly crash programs later. | Described as a “belligerent” actor unlikely to adhere to international norms, with competition likely reaching a “tipping point” that could spiral into conflict. |
Boots on the Moon to Beat China
Furthermore, the Mitchell Institute challenges US space policy, advocating for military human spaceflight to secure lunar resources. Specifically, they argue China’s program is a “belligerent” threat to everyone’s access. Notably, this could violate the Outer Space Treaty. Consequently, they recommend a US Space Force presence to establish positive norms. Therefore, the goal is to deter conflict and ensure space remains for all people.
Lunar Militarization Could Reshape Global Security
“Today’s race does not have a visible finish line. Instead, it’s an enduring competition for strategic positional advantage in space.”
Ultimately, the analysis concludes that to secure its future in space, the United States must prepare for a military human presence on the moon. Consequently, this represents a significant shift from long-standing policies separating civil and military space activities.
Therefore, the recommendation is for a pragmatic, phased approach led by the Space Force. Thus, starting with exploratory programs now aims to manage future risk and ensure readiness as the space economy grows.
